SaaS Monte Carlo Valuation Simulator

Enterprise-grade probabilistic valuation modeling for SaaS companies using multiple methodologies and 10,000+ simulation scenarios

Based on 2024-2025 Industry Data
Core Financial Metrics
$ M
Min Uncertainty (%)
Max Uncertainty (%)
Min Uncertainty (%)
Max Uncertainty (%)
Min Uncertainty (%)
Max Uncertainty (%)
Min Uncertainty (%)
Max Uncertainty (%)
Advanced Parameters
Min Uncertainty (%)
Max Uncertainty (%)
Min Uncertainty (%)
Max Uncertainty (%)
Conservative (Low)
Optimistic (High)

Valuation Methodology

Primary Valuation Formula

Based on industry-standard SaaS Capital methodology:

Valuation = ARR × Growth Rate × NRR × Base Multiple
Adjusted for gross margin and market conditions
Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Runs 1,000-50,000 scenarios with randomized inputs
  • Uses triangular distributions for uncertainty modeling
  • Accounts for correlation between metrics
  • Provides probabilistic valuation range
Key Assumptions
  • Market Multiples: Based on 2024-2025 public SaaS companies (4-8x ARR)
  • Growth Adjustments: Higher growth = higher multiple
  • NRR Premium: NRR > 100% receives valuation boost
  • Margin Impact: Gross margin affects final multiple
Industry Benchmarks (2024-2025)
  • Median SaaS multiple: 5.5-7.0x ARR
  • Average NRR: 101-110%
  • Average churn: 3.5-5%
  • LTV:CAC target: 3:1 to 5:1
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